Mumbai Stock Exchange：The prospects for making curve overtaking in India

Author: Zhang Rui

[While software is difficult to match, there are many hardware rigid constraints facing manufacturing.India's infrastructure, especially logistics and digital infrastructure, is relatively backward. At the same time$ 100 million.If there is no stronger funding support in the future, it is difficult for India's infrastructure to fundamentally change, and it will be difficult for the manufacturing to obtain a wide platform for bullets.]

[At present, the number of adults in India is as high as 280 million, and only 73 million of the 542 million laborers have received some form of vocational training (including formal and informal), and the proportion of formal technical workers accounts for only 3%.]

In 2023, India's GDP has grown strongly, and the stock market has also reached the highest history.Unlike Germany, India, Japan, South Korea and other manufacturing countries, PMI (purchasing manager index) is located below Rongku. At the end of November, India's manufacturing PMI has exceeded 50%for 30 consecutive months, and the PMI index in November rose to56%, continued to show a strong expansion trend."Manufacturing of India" seems to be overtaking in a corner to accelerate the pursuit of global manufacturing head lineups such as Germany, India and Japan.

"Made in India" in global manufacturing

The origin of the Indian manufacturing industry can be traced back to the British colonial period, especially the textile industry.At present, India is the second largest textile producer in India, and it is also the seventh largest textile trading country and the fifth largest garment trading country in the world. At the same time, the textile industry is the largest industrial department in India and the information technology industry after the information technology industry.The second largest export industry.Data show that the annual output value of the Indian textile industry reached more than US $ 200 billion, about 6%of GDP, and Indian textiles and clothing trade with a total of over 36 billion U.SMumbai Stock Exchange. dollars accounted for 4.6%of the global market.

Compared to the textile industry, India's manufacturing start is later.In the late 1860s, India had its own automobile manufacturerChennai Stock. After independence, the Indian government promoted local companies to joint venture with Japan.Automotive company is India's largest comprehensive car company and the largest commercial vehicle manufacturer. At present, its annual operating income is 38 billion U.S. dollars. It is the world's second largest passenger car manufacturer.The capital strength will incorporate two British luxury brands Jaguar and Land Rover.In terms of overall industry scale, the Indian automobile industry contributed 7.1%of GDP and 49%of the manufacturing GDP.

Imitation drug manufacturing is another great journey of the Indian manufacturing camp.As the strongest economy in the Indian family pharmaceutical industry, India currently has more than 10,000 pharmaceutical factories, more than 3,000 medium and large generic drug companies, and 60,000 generic drug brands., Domestic industry output value has reached nearly 50 billion US dollars, drug production ranks third in the world, vaccine output accounts for 60%of the world, and the supply of generic drugs accounts for 20%of the world.Home Drug Export Corporation sent $ 25 billion of drugs to more than 200 countries around the world, accounting for 38%of India's total exports.

Satellite and aerospace material product manufacturing is an emerging industry that has risen in India in the past 10 years. In 2014, India took the lead in sending satellites into the Mars orbit in Asian countries, allowing the outside world to witness the first time in the field of satellite manufacturing for more than 60 years.Folding the strength of the hair; 5 years later, India successfully destroyed a satellite with anti -satellite missiles, thereby becoming the fourth country in the world to obtain anti -satellite capabilities; in August this year, Indian Monthly Boat 3 detector successfully landed on the moonIndia has officially become the fourth country in the world after Russia, the United States, and India that has successfully landed on the lunar soft landing. It is also the first country in the world to reach the moon's Antarctic. As a conventional air equipment service supply, it is calledIRNSS's Indian navigation satellite system can currently provide a variety of services such as navigation, meteorology, ocean, and disaster alerts.

Comprehensively judged that India does have a place in the global manufacturing industry, especially in the manufacture of generic drug manufacturing.EssenceOn the one hand, India's embedded in the global manufacturing division of labor, especially the key parts of the industrial chain, is very limited and insufficient depth. At the same time, the weakness of overseas production and processing capabilities limits its global expansion.In the industrial system, many industries have to rely on the supply of products of foreign industrial chains. At most India can only be a terminal assembly base, and the right to speak in the international market is not strong. In addition, India lacks influential international famous brandsA total of only seven companies have entered the top 500 in the world. Among them, the manufacturing companies are only one Tata Group. Even if it is the world's well -known generic drug, it is difficult to escape the life of life.Data from the above shortcomings, the data released by the World Bank shows that the current proportion of Indian manufacturing in the global manufacturing industry is only 3%, which lags 28 percentage points behind India.

Multiple measures to support manufacturing

The Indian government proposed the "Indian Manufacturing 1.0" plan to put forward a very clear goal about the four pillar industries in the previous description, that is, the annual output value of the textile industry in 2025 will reach 225 billion US dollars.$ 100 billion, and by 2025, became the world's third largest automobile manufacturing base.On this basis, the "Indian Manufacturing 2.0" plan proposes manufacturing industries such as high -level chemical batteries, electromechanical products, food manufacturing, white home appliances and special steel, and will rise to 25%of GDP's contribution to GDP by 2025.

As far as the industrial structure is concerned, the service industry mainly based on information technology and software design has contributed more than 60 % to Indian GDP, but these industries have high technical content and low employment thresholds. In additionLays behind, the industrial faults lead to the "non -employment growth" strange appearance of the Indian economy. The domestic unemployment rate is maintained at about 8%all year round.Therefore, for India, the purpose of boosting the manufacturing industry is not just to enhance the international competitiveness of the self -industry and the shortcomings of the domestic industrial chain, it also implies the realistic demands of expanding wider employment hinterland.

The Indian government's core support measures for manufacturing are always called "production -related incentive plans" (PLI). This policy was originally aimed at the three industries: pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturing, mobile product manufacturing and electronic components., Semiconductor and other departments, each department has obtained very clear financial support, such as providing US $ 2.5 billion for advanced chemical battery production projects, $ 2.7 billion for companies that produce energy storage batteries, and arranging 100 wafer fabrics to arrange 100100 million US dollars, given IT hardware manufacturing companies $ 4 billion, etc. These funds are not only to domestic companies, but also to invest in India companies in other countries. At the same time, the above -mentioned aid funds are only staged.Essence

In addition to the incentives and support of real gold and silver, the Indian government also provides domestic and foreign manufacturing enterprises with preferential benefits for factories such as plant, land and other resource elements.Standards, and provide full reimbursement services for air tickets for overseas business activities, while existing exporters can enjoy equivalent welfare support with a upper limit of 20%; in addition, in order to attract foreign manufacturing management and technical talents, the Indian government is preparing to improve the tax -free upper limit.Reduce tax rates and change tax exemptions at the same time.And more importantly, while "hydrangea" is thrown intensively, the Indian government also waved a big stick for foreign products importers.

According to reports, in the past five years, India has increased tariffs on more than 500 imported goods categories, involving more than 4,000 commodities, the most noticeable of which is to increase the import tax of electronic appliances such as video and photography equipment from 10%from 10%To 15%, the import tax of television and microwave ovens and mobile phones has been increased from 10%to 20%.In addition, the import tax rates of air conditioning, refrigerators, washing machines, shoe, and plastic products and suitcases have increased by more than 10%, and the possibility of improvement is not excluded.Three years after the introduction of the import of smart TVs, India also included personal computers and laptops into import restrictions this year.

The Indian government's approach does violate the principles of fair competition and free trade, but the effects produced in the actual process are obvious to all.By restricting the import of smart TVs, India has achieved 100%local assembly of TV; by increasing taxes on imported mobile phones, the total number of mobile phone shipments in India has exceeded 2 billion units in the past 10 years, with a compound annual growth rate of 23%.More than 98%of the mobile phone market shipments are made by local.In the 1970s, in order to support local pharmaceutical companies, the Indian government used almost all exception policies such as restricting overseas investment, increasing tariffs, cancellation of drug patents, and restrictions on drug profits. In the end, many multinational enterprises were out of bureaus, Indian pharmaceutical companiesTake the opportunity to take off.

In the end, it is important to emphasize that the development of the Indian government's development and expansion is not only satisfied with the level of the industry, but also clarifies the direction of intelligent and service -oriented manufacturing.In terms of intelligent manufacturing, the Indian government is vigorously promoting the "Digital India" plan to prepare for 2023/2024 Investment to invest US $ 122 billion to create an artificial intelligence center and build 100 digital change projects in the next five years to greatly improve the intelligent level of enterprise production lines;In terms of service manufacturing, the Indian government is promoting enterprises to carry out new business models such as remote services and customized services to promote the transformation of manufacturing into a higher value -added field. To this end, the Indian government plans to invest US $ 130 billion to establish a large multi -mode interconnection countryThe overall planning project is to help manufacturing companies improve service response efficiency.

Advantages and disadvantages coexist

Just as the boost of the manufacturing industry can create a very powerful employment energy pool, the huge population stock and the sustainable population increase in turn, and the growth of the Indian manufacturing industry has transported abundant labor resources bonus.As the world's largest population country, India currently has a total population of 1.425 billion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) speculates that the total Indian population will be close to 1.7 billion in 2027.The proportion of the total population is as high as 80%of India, the median population is only 28.2 years old, and the population under 25 years of age accounts for half of the total population. The population under the age of 35 accounts for about 60%of the total population.One of the most "young" countries.Based on the structural characteristics of the above population, the OECD believes that the Indian working age population can reach 1 billion in the next 10 years.

The abundant and flexible population resources not only create more space for manufacturing enterprises for manufacturing companies, but also occupy a more active position in the wage price game, which will help enterprises to effectively reduce production and operation costs and enhance market competitiveness.More importantly, the huge population size is actually a strong consumer engine. At present, the scale of India's consumption stock is 2.3 trillion US dollars. In addition to the population increase, it will superimpart the larger consumer momentum.30%, accompanied by the improvement of urbanization, will inevitably expand consumption.Goldman Sachs predicts that the Indian consumer market will soar to $ 5.2 trillion by 2031.The expansion of the consumer caliber and the development of consumer kinetic energy is directly driven by the rise in the sales volume of supply -side enterprises and the comprehensive improvement of revenue profits, including medical manufacturing, clothing manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, food manufacturing, battery production and battery production and battery production and battery production.Many industries such as home appliance manufacturing will benefit from China University.

It is precisely showing the huge advantage of population dividends and the charm of the huge consumer market that India has become an ideal place for foreign -funded enterprises to start investment layout.Data show that in the past 10 years, the FDI (foreign direct investment) of India (foreign direct investment) exceeded 960 billion U.S. dollars. The actual use of foreign investment in the year has increased from the initial US $ 24.3 billion to $ 71 billion, an increase of 290%. At the same time, the global business environment has ranged from 142It rose to 63, and among the multinational companies in India, it is easy to see the global manufacturing head companies such as Apple, Tesla, and Samsung.Using a large number of foreign -funded enterprises, India's manufacturing can not only extend the industry chain layout and fill the industry's shortcomings through the power of capital grafting, but also win overseas sales channels and incremental markets faster.Among them.

It is worth emphasizing that the development of the service industry, especially the leading development of IT technology, not only allowed India to undertake more than 45%of the outsourcing services in the world, but also equipped a strong driving engine for the upgrading of the domestic manufacturing industry.On the one hand, many remote information and software design companies can provide manufacturing companies with service support from product design to customer customization, and enhance the flexibility of enterprise production and the sensitivity of market response; on the other hand, IT companies can output through technology output as a technical output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technical output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output as a technology output.Enterprises are empowering from production to sales, from manpower to finance, from warehouses to workshops to improve the efficiency of the entire process management of the enterprise; not only that, IT technology companies can also carry out in -depth capital integration with manufacturing enterprises, fasterGenerate a new ecology of manufacturing service.

However, the Indian manufacturing industry is facing the period of demographic dividend, but at the same time, the labor quality bondage also exists objectively.Data show that the current number of adult human blinds in India is as high as 280 million, and only 73 million of the 542 million laborers have received some form of vocational training (including formal and informal). The proportion of formal technical workers accounted for only 3%of the total number of labor.India (24%) and Japan (80%), which are far lower than the Asian manufacturing power.The low -quality workers are not conducive to the technological progress and innovation of the enterprise, but also inhibit the intensity and effectiveness of the Indian manufacturing industry's rewriting of inherent technical gaps. At the same time, the Indian government has introduced foreign capital to the development of manufacturing."The route, but under the premise of holding the technical bottleneck tightly, the result can only be that Indian companies always follow others and strode, and far from forming the skill of curve overtaking.

While software is difficult to match, the hardware rigid constraints faced by manufacturing are also many.India's infrastructure, especially logistics and digital infrastructure, is relatively backward. At the same timeThe highest 43 -year record of 100 million US dollars, the proportion of debt rose to 88%, not only much higher than the 60%debt limit recommended by the IMF, but also exceeded the average level of about 64%of emerging market countries. At the same time, the Indian government's financial deficitThe rate reaches 6.8%, which is far from 3%of the IMF recommended.If there is no stronger funding support in the future, it is difficult for India's infrastructure to fundamentally change, and it will be difficult for the manufacturing to obtain a wide platform for bullets.

(The author is a director and professor of economics in the Indian Market Society)